For Q4 2025, roughly 13 thousand new vulnerabilities are projected to be published in the National Vulnerability Database, with a potential margin of over one thousand cases. By Q4 2026, the number may rise to around 14 thousand, signaling a continued upward trend in reported weaknesses. The increase is attributed to expanding attack surfaces, faster disclosure cycles, and growing automation in vulnerability reporting. The overall volume highlights the ongoing pressure on security and incident response teams to prioritize remediation efficiently rather than attempting full coverage.

The forecast emphasizes that vulnerability counts alone are not a sufficient metric for risk. Effective vulnerability management should consider exploitability, asset criticality, and defensive maturity, not just publication frequency. Organizations are encouraged to move toward intelligence-driven prioritization that aligns forecasts with product categories, vendor ecosystems, and prevalent CWE patterns. The message is clear: forecasting should support decision-making in patch management, resource allocation, and long-term resilience planning, not merely serve as a statistical exercise.

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Source: https://www.first.org/blog/20251016-Q4Vulnerability-Forecast